Uranium is up +30% since my recommendation,
is there still more room for upside?

Introduction

Back in August, I had made the case for a long energy allocation with Uranium as key part of this play. Over the past few months, uranium has re-emerged as a strategic play in energy transition and the two names I had suggested are standing out: SII (SPROTT ETF) and Cameco (CCJ). Here’s a breakdown of what’s driving the rally, where the risks lie, and why both could matter for long-term clean-energy allocations.

 

Key Drivers Behind the Uranium Push

Since making the recommendation in early August SII is up 30% and CCJ up 11%. Let’s have a quick look at what supported the rally.

1. Tightening Supply

• Underinvestment in mines + delayed restarts = structural deficit
• Utilities are locking in long-term contracts more aggressively

 

2. Nuclear Renaissance & Strategic Demand

• Governments and utilities prioritising nuclear for clean and secure baseload
• Cameco’s 49% stake in Westinghouse gives it exposure to reactors + fuel services

 

3. ETF / Investor Flows via SII

• SII manages the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM), which tracks the North Shore Global Uranium Mining Index.
• Significant index methodology changes are coming, effective after the December 19, 2025 rebalance: free-float weighting, higher “float market cap” entry ($125M), and a single-stock cap of 20% (vs 15% before).
• These changes could increase liquidity and concentration risk, and reshape which miners dominate URNM.

 

Quantitative Snapshot / Performance (1-Year)

- URNM (SII-Managed ETF):

• 35 issuers in the index as of October 2025.
• Large-cap miners (> US$10 B): ~31% of URNM’s portfolio.
• Management fee: 0.75%.

- Index Changes Impact (Post-Dec 19, 2025):

• Free-float weighting could concentrate more weight in large, liquid uranium miners.
• Minimum constituent count of 25, liquidity and market cap criteria will filter out very small / illiquid names.

 

Cameco (CCJ): Valuation At a Glance

Rich Multiples reflecting high growth expectations:

• Trailing P/E: ~ 98–99×
• EV / EBITDA: ~ 50–56×
• Price / Book: ~ 7.6–8×

 

Strategic Leverage:

• Significant exposure to uranium price, CCJ is still executing on old contracts at lower prices. As new pricing rolls in, I see upside in average realized prices.
• Downstream optionality via Westinghouse (reactor + fuel) with US Gvt partnership to accelerate US reactor capabilities.

 

Forward Outlook & Positioning

Global electricity demand increase and ways to provide clean energy to supply the heavy needs of AI/ data center driven demand are still unmatched. This has placed Nuclear electricity production at the forefront for providing electricity suppliers with clean energy.Uranium purchases remain firmly below replacement rate as utility companies are consuming more than they are able to purchase.

 - Uranium Market:
Structural tightness likely persists into 2030. If contract momentum holds and new mine supply remains constrained, prices could stabilise north of US$83–90/lb, with upside to US$100+ in aggressive scenarios. With current spot prices reaching $80 I still believe there is more upside in SII.

 - SII / URNM:
A very efficient way to access uranium-miner exposure. The upcoming index changes could make URNM more liquid and core allocation but also more concentrated. For investors bullish on large, well-capitalised uranium miners, this could be a highly efficient vehicle.